It is an axiom heard countless times in business school lecture halls and on corporate earnings calls: Uncertainty is bad for business.888pg

The U.S. economy is about to test that proposition like never before.

The first weeks of the second Trump administration have been a dizzying whirlwind of economic policy moves: A spending freeze was declared, then rescinded. Federal programs, and even entire agencies, have been suspended or shut down. Tariffs have been threatened, announced, canceled, delayed or enacted — sometimes in a matter of days or even hours. Measures of economic policy uncertainty have soared to levels normally associated with recessions and global crises.

Business leaders — many of whom cheered President Trump’s election victory, expecting lower taxes and reduced regulation — have been left shaking their heads.

“Your guess is as good as mine what’s happening in Washington,” said Nicholas Pinchuk, chief executive of the automotive toolmaker Snap-on.

“So far what we’re seeing is a lot of costs and a lot of chaos,” Jim Farley, the chief executive of Ford Motor, told investors at a conference in New York this week.

“It’s like your head is spinning with what’s coming down — you just never know,” said Chad Coulter, founder and chief executive of Biscuit Belly, a chain of breakfast restaurants based in Louisville, Ky.

Note: Daily data, shown as biweekly average.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

By The New York Times

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Speaking in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge in recent polls, Mr. Trump bristled at the notion that his struggles with women voters could cost him the election and suggested that his tough talk about immigration and economic proposals would resonate with them.

Such a scenario would represent a notable degree of ticket-splitting, perpetuating a trend captured by surveys throughout this election cycle. Democratic Senate candidates in a number of swing states, including Arizona and Nevada, have consistently polled ahead of the top of the ticket, especially when President Biden was the party’s standard-bearer. As Ms. Harris’s nomination has made the election more competitive, the gap between her and those down-ballot Democrats has narrowed — but the trend persists in most races in swing states.

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